What entices insurers to India?

 

By R.N.Bhaskar


November 23, 2006 (published in the DNA).


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On the face of it, it is China that should be more seductive, with a promise of a lot more. . . . . But the queues are longer at India’s doorstep.

The joker in the pack could be the Indian government’s policy to introduce detariffing with effect from January 1, 2007.  Contrary to the past 50 years that were witness to government-owned insurance companies dictating a uniform rate that insurers would have to pay, detariffing will allow more competition in the market.  No longer will all insurance companies offer the same rates and the same terms. 

At the heart of the situation, notwithstanding the lower cap of 26% on the foreign equity share capital holding in joint-ventures in this country, is the Indian demographic promise.  Thanks to a robust population growth – once much maligned – India’s working population today accounts for 58.2% of its population. 

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On the face of it, it is China that should be more seductive, with a promise of a lot more.  Not surprisingly, insurers, when they look at the numbers, are initially compelled to make a beeline to China.  After all, it has already proved to be a larger market, has more global players, a higher industry growth and more FDI leeway in the insurance sector (please see table 1).

Table 1:What entices insurance companies?

China is seductive . . .

China

India

Total life insurance premiums ($ billion)

62-63

17

Number of players

>20

15

Industry Growth (%)

30

20

Foreign Direct Investment cap (% holding)

40

26

Global market share

1.9%

0.9%

But the queues are longer at India’s doorstep. And this can be explained by a recent study by Gary Bennett, managing director & CEO, Max New York Life Insurance, and similar studies by Morgan Stanley and HSBC.  These studies show why almost everybody believes that India could be where the market could be far more exciting  (please refer to Table 2).

Table 2 . . .

. . . but India is more enticing

China

India

Ambit of foreign players’ operations

14 cities

National

Life Insurance penetration

1.83%

2.53%

Growth expectation during 1995-2004 (HSBC estimates)

40%

70%

Private consumption as % of GDP

42%

64%

Share of foreign joint ventures of Insurance market

28%

2%

Year on year growth in Feb 2006

31%

52%

 

<> What could be the reasons for the two diametrically opposite perspectives that the Insurance market in India offers to investors?  <> 

At the heart of the situation, notwithstanding the lower cap of 26% on the foreign equity share capital holding in joint-ventures in this country, is the Indian demographic promise.  Thanks to a robust population growth – once much maligned – India’s working population today accounts for 58.2% of its population.  And this number is likely to continue growing during the next decade.  On the other hand, China’s one-child policy has caused a decline in the numbers joining the workforce.  Thus the number of insurance seekers is likely to shrink in China. <> 

However, the joker in the pack could be the Indian government’s policy to introduce detariffing with effect from January 1, 2007.  Contrary to the past 50 years that were witness to government-owned insurance companies dictating a uniform rate that insurers would have to pay, detariffing will allow more competition in the market.  No longer will all insurance companies offer the same rates and the same terms.  <> 

Motor Vehicle (accounting for almost 42.5% of the Rs.20,000 crore annual non-life insurance premium pie) and Accident and Health (10%) policies are likely to see a rise of 25% per annum in 2007.  In contrast, Property, Fire, Engineering and Marine Insurance (30%) may actually see a drop of between 35-40% thanks to more competition in premium rates and covers as a result of detariffing.  Thus, notwithstanding the drop in premiums, business may actually expand exponentially, and swell to annual premiums of Rs.25,000 crore.  That could mean a growth of 20% once again, and a volume growth that would be much larger.  Even life insurance is likely to continue growing at a robust CAGR of 59% for the next five years, and the share of private players in this segment to rise to 45% by 2010.  <> 

The fun is just about to begin.


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