The inevitable rural crisis

The rising restlessness in the Singurs and Nandigrams is a worrying sign


By R.N.Bhaskar


22 February 2007 (published in the DNA). Please click here for the web version  2007_02_DNA_rural unrest_120kb.pdf

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Rural folk to be weaned away from agriculture whose share in India’s GDP has already shrunk from almost 40% a few decades ago to less than 20% today (see table) even though agriculture continues to employ over 40% of India’s workforce.

Significantly, India hasn’t paid heed to the European practice of not letting any factory come up on any soil, unless the topsoil (usually the top one metre of land) which has micronutrients that have evolved over millions of years, is first taken out by the industralist and deposited on other non-arable lands.  This is the tax industrialists must pay for occupying land that suits them.  This way even barren lands can become agricultural lands, and the rural community does not get uprooted entirely. 

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The market meltdown is there on everyone’s lips.  Agitations by rural folk – like the one in Singur and Nandigram in West Bengal – worry market watchers as they could slow down the pace of reforms so urgently needed.  And reports coming in some newspapers – that there is more unemployment in India’s cities than ever before – has not been lost on this country’s politicians. 

<> All these point to the inevitable crisis that is bound to increase in the country’s villages on the one hand, and in its cities on the other.  The rural sector is likely to become increasingly restless because (a) people believe that the setting up of factories and SEZ’s will uproot them from rural lands, and (b) common rural folk are also pained by the sheer erosion of their purchasing power, thanks to a landless labour system that many zamindars have exploited and paid them a pittance for decades.  And the advent of new technology – the television in the ‘eighties and the mobile phones in this century – has helped being into sharp focus the increasing gap between the lifestyles of the cities and the rural poor. <> 

The leftists would like to reduce this gap by taxing the rich even more.  But that could drive capital underground and leave the country poorer.  The other way would be to increase the incomes of rural folk.  However this would require rural folk to be weaned away from agriculture whose share in India’s GDP has already shrunk from almost 40% a few decades ago to less than 20% today (see table) even though agriculture continues to employ over 40% of India’s workforce.  Alternatively, new means would have to be found to increase rural incomes.


Sectorwise share of GDP

(at 1993-94 prices)

Sector

1980-81

1993-94

2001-02

2003-04

2005-06

Agriculture (rural)

39.71

30.97

24.23

21.71

19.66

Industry (urban)

23.70

26.26

26.67

26.86

26.22

Services (urban)

36.59

42.77

49.3

51.43

54.11

Evidently, unless the rural areas are allowed to earn more, their incomes are bound to diminish further.  Ideally, this is a tutorial the government ought to be conveying to all rural folk – that unless their wages increase, they will lose out.  But that wouldn’t please the zamindars, many of whom are politicians.  It could also be inflationary, as foodgrain prices would most certainly increase.

The other way would be to allow more factories – ideally agro-based units – to get located on agricultural lands. But that would lead to the agitations of the type one has witness in many parts of India in the past one year.

A third way would be to resettle farming communities on non-agricultural land that has been made more fertile with good irrigation systems and fertile soil.  Significantly, India hasn’t paid heed to the European practice of not letting any factory come up on any soil, unless the topsoil (usually the top one metre of land) which has micronutrients that have evolved over millions of years, is first taken out by the industralist and deposited on other non-arable lands.  This is the tax industrialists must pay for occupying land that suits them.  This way even barren lands can become agricultural lands, and the rural community does not get uprooted entirely. 

If a solution to this crisis is not found, India could see a momentum build up against economic liberalisation. Sadly, this resistance to change, will be triggered off (and exploited by self-serving politicians) by the very communities that desperately need the economic benefits that such liberalisation invariably brings to a country India.

In fact, the rural agitation could also spill over to the cities, in many more violent ways.  But that is something for another article.


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